Monday, April 24, 2017

Monday, April 24, Morning Global Market Roundup: French Election Relief Sends Europe Soaring

By Marc Jones
Reuters
April 24, 2017

European shares opened sharply higher and the euro briefly vaulted to five-month peaks on Monday after the market's favored candidate won the first round of the French election, reducing the risk of another Brexit-like shock.

The victory for pro-EU centrist Emmanuel Macron, who is now expected to beat right-wing rival Marine Le Pen in a deciding vote next month, sent the pan-European STOXX 50 index .STOXX50E up 3 percent, France's CAC40 .FCHI almost 4 percent and bank stocks .SX7E more than 6 percent. [.EU]

Traders top-sliced some of the euro's overnight gains, but it was still up more than 1 percent on the dollar EUR=EBS, more than 2 percent against the yen EURJPY= and 1.3 percent on the pound EURGBP= as the early flurry of deals subsided. [FRX/]

"It (the first round result) has come out in line with the market's expectations so you have something of a risk rally as there was a bit of a risk-premium built into all markets," said James Binny, head of currency at State Street Global Advisors.

There was also an unwinding of safe-haven trades.

Shorter-term German bonds DE2YT=TWEB saw their biggest sell-off since the end of 2015 as investors piled back into French FR10YT=TWEB as well as Italian, Spanish, Portuguese and Greek debt [GVD/EUR].

The Japanese yen's fall was widespread JPY=EBS, the market's so-called fear-guage, the VIX volatility index .VIX, plunged the most since November and gold XAU= saw its biggest tumble in more than a month. [GOL/]

E-mini futures for Wall Street's S&P 500 ESc1 climbed 0.9 percent in early trade, while yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes US10YT=RR rose almost 8 basis points to 2.31 percent.

Risk Rally

Asia also saw a risk rally. Japan's Nikkei .N225 jumped 1.5 percent as the yen retreated, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS edged up 0.3 percent.

Shanghai shares .SSEC fell 1.7 percent after state media signaled Beijing would tolerate more market volatility as regulators clamp down on riskier financing.

But Macron's success set the tone.

The euro jumped in relief, and was last up 1.1 percent at $1.0840 EUR=, having been as far as $1.0940, the highest since early November.

The safe-haven yen slipped across the board with the euro surging as much 2.4 percent to 119.77 yen EURJPY= while the U.S. dollar gained 1 percent to 110.20 yen JPY=.

"The rise of the euro and risk appetite rebounding is understandable and this should also see yields in Europe fall, spreads to Bunds tighten and stocks rally," said Tim Riddell, an analyst at Westpac.

"However, such gains are likely to be contained when markets reflect upon the marked shift away from the 'establishment' and just how effective the new president may be," he added.

Skeptical On Tax


Wall Street on Friday had only a modest lift from news President Donald Trump would announce the broad outline of his proposed tax package on Wednesday.

"Markets are skeptical that the real details will be forthcoming," said analysts at ANZ in a note.

"There is also plenty of conjecture about whether any tax cuts will be able to be revenue neutral, and that could affect their ease of passage through Congress."

The Dow .DJI ended Friday down a minor 0.15 percent, while the S&P 500 .SPX lost 0.30 percent and the Nasdaq .IXIC fell 0.11 percent.

Investors were also keeping a wary eye on tensions in the Korean peninsula.

North Korea said on Sunday it was ready to sink a U.S. aircraft carrier to demonstrate its military might, in the latest sign of rising tension as Trump called the leaders of China and Japan to discuss the situation.

South Korea responded by asking Washington about holding joint drills with the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike group as it approaches waters off the Korean peninsula.

Oil prices recouped just a little of last week's hefty losses, still weighed by signs U.S. production and inventory growth were offsetting OPEC's attempts to reduce the global crude glut.

Brent futures LCOc1 were up 16 cents at $52.12 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures CLc1 added 17 cents to $49.79.


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